As time rolls on.
There's less and less to worry about.
How bad this is now, is how bad it's going to get.
The worst to fear now is boredom and irrationality.
See you when this is month ends and we can see just how wrong the "327,000" deaths was.
Then after that, see you when this is over.
[10:46 | 03/12/1994] Bouncing Around The Room
It hasn't been a month yet, but prediction 1 from the previous post has some catching up to do if it wants to hit its deadline!
Prediction 3 is up in the air. The stock indices have taken a larger than normal hit, but the slump has no reason to not be temporary.
Prediction 2 can be updated to:
- 65.44 Million Infected (detected or not)
- 327,000 Deaths from COVID-19
These are still absolutely ridiculous, as of right now China has effectively dealt with the virus from start to finish and their current stats as of today are:
- 80,796 total cases (triple that to get an estimated number of infected 242,388)
- 3,169 deaths (let's triple that too cause why the fuck not: 9507 dead)
- Growth rate has slowed to an average of 0.05% increase of cases per day for the last week
Current USA stats are:
- 1,401 confirmed cases (*3 = 4203)
- 40 confirmed deaths (*3 = 120)
- Growth rate is at 29% (or an average of 37.8% per day over the past week)
We'll compare our current state to past states in China (A 'totalitarian' government that has 'supernatural-level control' over its citizens) and in South Korea (A peaceful and 'utopian democracy' that is basically American Korea) and, assuming our strand of SARS-2 isn't wildly mutated (it isn't, but if you need assurance check: nextstrain.org), then we can accurately predict what will happen.
- Had a 39% growth rate on 01/26/2020 with 2,744 infected
- Had 1,975 confirmed infected on 01/25/2020
- 20 days from then they had 51,091 infected with a ~4.5% growth rate per day weekly average
So at this point China was _halfway_ through its total infected count and was just on the uptick of the exponential curve before the plateau.
If we are China, then our total infected in 20 days will be around 50,000-60,000 as well. Our death estimate will be somewhere around 1,500.
But we aren't China, and America has the finnicky responsibility of 'not' being totalitarian (I'm being tongue-in-cheek here, honestly I
don't believe the efforts China put in to enforce quarantine either helped to contain the spread as much as some people are led to believe,
nor do I believe that local governments in America can't accomplish the same thing), so let's look at the same data in South Korea - a bastion
of human rights and happiness and cleanliness and all other stuff we as Western media want to pile on them during this age.
- South Korea
- Had a 40% growth rate on 02/27/2020
- Had 1,766 infected on 02/27/2020
- 15 days from then (today as of this writing) they had 7,869 infected with a ~1.5% growth rate
At this point Korea just reached its plateau after its exponential uptick.
If we are South Korea then our total infected in 20 days will be around 8,000-9,000 and somewhere in the ballpark of 75-100 deaths.
But we definitely aren't South Korea because we aren't aggressively testing, and we aren't as densely packed as a population in much of our
country but I believe we're somewhere between these two extremes.
We could look at Italy but their testing rates are dismal and they don't even know what's going on, which is a lot like America.
Italy is right in the midst of its exponential craze. Maybe they're finally testing like they should be? If that's the case they should
plateau out relatively quickly.
- Had a 27% growth rate on 02/29/2020
- Had 1,128 infected cases on that same day
- 13 days later (today as of this writing) they now have 15,113 cases and a 21% growth rate still.
If we are Italy then in 20 days we'll have 20,000 cases and just be hitting our exponential curve.
Worst case scenario from all three example:
- 60,000 infected in 20 days and we're just hitting the exponential curve
- Death rate of 6% (high end of Italy estimate) would stack up bodies exactly 3,600 body bags high
- If we're like China and we're only half-way through at this point, then double infected to 120,000
- Likewise, double the deaths to 7,200 deaths
Let's bring back our original doomsayers' prediction and see how they stand up
- Number of Infected
- Sociopath Alarmist Fantasy
- 65.44 Million Infected (detected or not)
- Reality from disseminated sources
- 360,000 Infected (pessimistic estimate multiplied by three)
- Number of Deaths
- Sociopath Alarmist Fantasy
- 327,000 Deaths
- Reality from disseminated sources
- 21,600 Deaths (pessimistic estimate multipled by three)
These deaths are avoidable. We can test more, respect quarantines, and stay home and keep it lower.
But stop fucking up the DJI!
 The estimated infection rate is for every person who gets infected, another 3 people will catch it from them thus we'll multiply by 3
to get a pessimistic picture of the true count of infected.
 Unusually high probably due to Italy's insistence to only test high risk individuals
[08:06 | 02/28/1994] Keep Tabs on Irrational Alarmists
By this time next month, people think:
- There will be a shortage of food in the grocery stores in America
- There will be an uncontained outbreak of COVID-19 in America infecting 10% of the population and hospitalizing 1%
- The stock market sell-off will be catastrophic and disrupt the daily lives of every single American
All these are insane accusations based in an emotionally weak psyche's desire for panic induced endorphins.
None of these are supported by data or any reasonable amount of evidence.
But for the fun of it, let's mark these asinine outbursts in stone and check back in a month to see how wrong they are.
Why? Because the idiotic masses forget the words they say mere days after they say it.
Hold them accountable even once, and you'll see how blind to the future they really are.
[22:04 | 02/15/1994] End
Oh isn't that the website where a bunch of racist idiot children act like they're rational genius adults?
no i don't go on Reddit.
[12:47 | 09/03/1993] End
Anything worth writing must first be worthwhile to your self.
To make it worthwhile to yourself, you must remove all audiences from the equation. If your writing still brings you joy, when you know it exists isolated from the world and will never have anyone read it, then your writing is worthwhile.
Writing for an audience is not creative, and it is not truth. It is the practicing of a system built to get a specific result. It is the narrowing of the mind and the compulsion to stifle your search for reality.
Remove the audience, and discover what is really worth telling.
[12:40 | 08/19/1993] Result
When working on a project, keep rituals and disciplines a private matter. Exporting them as if they're a valuable product themselves defeats their purpose.
Only export the product of those disciplines.
Of course it's completely fine to export the discipline when inquired, but it should be noted that it can only possibly be served as a curiosity.
[14:36 | 08/15/1993] No Goals Is A Good Goal
A quick meditation this time around.
I found myself gaining a lot of energy after reading Jack Kerouac's "On The Road". I thought that I should take that energy and apply it towards my ambitions at work. Apply it towards my general fascination and passion with writing code and programming.
Then I had a quick meeting with a coworker and the question of what I wanted to do with my career came up. What do you want to do, professionally? I don't have a confident fucking answer for that. Then I felt all that energy drain out of me like someone opened up the flood gates. Now I was back to being listless and jaded and lost all interesting coding.
The conclusion I drew from this is situation is simple. Never have any goals. Never plan out your career. At least not concrete ones.
Find the reasonless, insane joy you get from some unexplainable precise action and just live there.
[08:05 | 08/07/1993] Another Special Page
Hey all. I made a new page that won't be going into the top navbar: Black Mesa Camera Feed
I like to listen to these soundscapes while coding and decided to collect them all here.
[12:07 | 08/06/1993] The Rut
One time years ago I was struggling understanding a new system at work. I asked for help as I needed it, but at one point my mentor told me:
"I don't know the words to say to get you out of the rut you are in."
The problem I was encountering was my own problem. I not only had to figure it out on my own, but no one else could help me solve my problem. My thinking was flawed, all tangled up in the assumptions I had made and confused by the twists and turns my logic had been taking. The only person who was capable of unraveling the mess I had gotten myself in was me. External assistance would only have me bend and fold my view more in order to arrive at a verbatim conclusion of what was instructed to me as the solution.
Like unfolding a protein, my thought patterns and perspective was all fucked up. I needed to look at the map I had followed to get to where I was and backtrack my way out to find a clearer and better understanding. I had to let go of the honest knowledge I had in order to write over it with a more vivid knowledge that would get me to where I wanted to go. In this case, I needed it to get me to a point of understanding to understand this system.
The world of anxiety and hatred has us tangled. It has us all wrapped up tight, tugging at the cords to squeeze every bit of attention out of us. Reddit, instagram, facebook, youtube. They take your time and benefit from it. They add in anxiety and fear to coax out even more time from you. Like force feeding an insect caffeine to hasten its reproductive process, you're force fed fear and anger and anxiety to exclamate your yields of attention to them.
You can always make more money. You can always cook more food.
You can never make more time.
Your time should benefit you. Your time should belong to you.
It should not benefit them.
Don't get anxiety from things that don't effect you in a direct way. Who wants you to get upset that a tragedy happened across the country? Who honestly wants you to get upset?
Two parties do: The perpetrator of the tragedy as it is their purpose to terrorize your life, and the collective media as it is their purpose to squeeze your time and attention out for profit.
Let it go, and get on.
I started this post off with the words my mentor told me because I want to let you know that your problem with anxiety and fear is your own. Your thoughts have been led down the wrong path ways, your logic has been folded on the lines that is most beneficial to the forces that can profit from it - monetarily or otherwise. You have been unwillingly put into this rut.
I don't know the words to say to get you out of the rut you are in.
But I know, with enough time and reflection, you can get yourself out and live the life you think has been lost.
[11:57 | 07/23/1993] It's All A Play
A lot of us think that our lives aren't worth living. Up to the present and forward into the potential future.
What person would read a book on our life, if written? Who would have the interest or drive or energy to even write that book?
The answer to both of those questions is simply: no one.
What person of reknown has actually lived a life that is worth reading? Full of intrigue and colorful characters. Plots and plans, failing and succeeding?
Very little of us lead lives that are interesting. Not many of us have a life story worth hearing. Not even the most accomplished of us.
Social media's second greatest lie is telling you that others' lives are interesting and meaningful. Its first is telling you that your life is interesting and meaningful.
Story books are written by authors pretending to be other people, living in other worlds, making up a meaningful life to fill the void of their own.
Self worth is definitonless, but not evasive. It's intangible, but not formless. It's formed through direct and complete control of your own thoughts, mental state, and actions.
You must fight to free yourself to have control of your own thoughts.
You must exercise to have the strength to navigate your mental state, whatever it might be.
After that, complete control of your actions will follow.
Snarky, seedy, worthless scoffs of the degenerates to gorge themselves on pleasure seeking principles and self-serving entertainment driven goals are slaves. Less free than dogs.
They are worthless, as they have no freedom and can not define their own self worth. Their lives, in addition to being meaningless and uninteresting, are worth nothing.
Cut them out of your world. For your world is the only one you can be sure exists. Remove their worthless souls from the world.
[17:01 | 07/22/1993] Let's try this again.
I made a post earlier, but I fumbled the keyboard like a real keyboard cowboy and accidently deleted everything before saving.
I don't want to put in the effort of typing it all out, so I'll just keep it short and say I like this quote:
"Focused, hard work is the real key to success. Keep your eyes on the goal, and just keep taking the next step towards completing it. If you aren't sure which way to do something, do it both ways and see which works better."
Wish I can live by this.
Hoping I can be happy with how I deal with my daily duties before I die,
[13:46 | 07/12/1993] Need To Make A New Game
Hey everyone! Before I get started I want to point out the site change.
I've snipped out older posts to be displayed on a separate index page. If you wanna see em, just click on the banner at the bottom of this page.
In other news, I'm going to make a new game. I think it might be like a PC version of Zeliard but set in a cyberpunk setting. Gotta read some cyberpunk... possibly reread Snowcrash!
Anyway, that's all I got. Really just wanted to snip the posts.
Thanks for sticking by,